The future of solid biofuels in Poland up to 2040

The role of biomass in the energy transition

Poland’s energy transition is entering a crucial phase, in which the decisions made over the coming years will determine how the entire energy system operates for decades to come. The period 2026–2028 will be particularly important, as investment priorities, technology choices and the future of existing generating units are decided.

In this context, solid biofuels – including pellets and wood chips – are an important part of the transition. Their importance stems primarily from their ability to provide stable, controllable energy production, which distinguishes them from sources dependent on weather conditions.

Biomass availability up to 2040

One of the key issues for the future of the biofuel sector is the availability of sustainable biomass resources.

The publication indicates that:

• domestic biomass resources are limited,
• their use must be balanced against the needs of other sectors of the economy,
• raw material availability will be one of the main factors shaping market development.

This requires strategic management of raw materials and consideration of the global biomass market, which is having an increasingly strong influence on the domestic energy sector.

The importance of biofuels for energy security

Solid biofuels play an important role in ensuring the country’s energy security.

Their key functions are:

• stabilising the energy system,
• supplementing energy production during periods of low renewable generation,
• supporting district heating.

Biomass is currently one of the few renewable energy sources that can both support decarbonisation and ensure continuity of energy supply.

Key regulations and their impact on the market

The development of the biofuel market in Poland will depend largely on national and EU regulations.

The most important regulatory areas include:

• the European Union’s climate policy,
• principles for the sustainable use of biomass,
• support for renewable energy sources,
• mechanisms for reducing CO₂ emissions.

These regulations will determine both the profitability of investments and the direction in which the entire sector develops.

Risks for the biofuel sector

The publication also identifies significant risks that may affect the development of the solid biofuel market.

The most important of these are:

• regulatory uncertainty,
• limited availability of raw materials,
• growing competition for biomass,
• dependence on global supply chains.

These risks require long-term planning and a flexible approach to investment in the energy sector.

Biomass and the decarbonisation of power and heat generation

Solid biofuels play a particular role in decarbonisation, especially in sectors that are difficult to electrify.

Their importance includes:

• reducing greenhouse gas emissions,
• the ability to use existing infrastructure,
• support for the transition of district heating.

These properties make biomass an important complement to other renewable sources.

Prospects for the development of the biofuel market

Biofuels can be expected to play an increasingly important role in Poland’s energy mix in the coming years. However, this development will depend on several key factors:

• the availability of raw materials,
• regulatory stability,
• economic competitiveness,
• integration with other energy technologies.

Investment decisions made in the coming years will have long-term consequences for the entire sector.

Summary

Solid biofuels, including pellets, will play an important role in Poland’s energy transition through to 2040. Their greatest advantage is their ability to provide stable energy production and support energy security.

At the same time, the sector’s development will be constrained by biomass availability, regulations and market factors. A strategic approach to using this resource and taking account of its role in the entire energy system is therefore crucial.

This article is based on the study:
“The future of biofuels in Poland through to 2040” by Tomasz Mirowski, published by Instytut Polityki Energetycznej im. Ignacego Łukasiewicza (IPE Commentary no. 1/2026).